Iran: Is a Proxy World War Brewing in the Gulf?

By Graham Vanbergen: The US-led war on Iran has created the most dangerous geopolitical moment since the Iraq invasion – not because it is likely to become World War III overnight, but because nearly every great power now has something important at stake.

Iran’s strongest weapon is not victory over America. It is disruption. By threatening the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran can raise the cost of war for everyone: Europe, China, India, Japan, the Gulf monarchies and American consumers. Reuters reports that the war has effectively closed Hormuz, curtailing exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq, with Brent crude up about $50 a barrel since the conflict began.

This is why the conflict is so combustible. Israel wants Iran’s missile, nuclear and proxy network permanently weakened. The UAE shares Israel’s fear of Iran but must avoid becoming an Iranian target. Saudi Arabia dislikes Iran’s regional power but fears a war that could hit oil facilities, airports, desalination plants and investor confidence. CSIS notes that Riyadh’s risk tolerance is “extraordinarily low” because Iran has escalation dominance over vulnerable Gulf infrastructure.

China is the quiet giant in the room. It buys huge volumes of Gulf oil and has deep relationships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran. It will not want Iran destroyed, but nor will it sacrifice its much larger Gulf economic interests for Tehran. China’s Gulf military role remains limited compared with America’s; a UK Parliament briefing noted that from 2010 to 2020 China supplied less than 2% of GCC arms imports.

Russia’s position is darker. Moscow benefits from anything that distracts Washington, strains NATO economies, lifts energy prices and binds Iran more tightly into an anti-Western axis. Iran and Russia already have a relationship hardened by the Ukraine war. A prolonged Gulf conflict would deepen that alignment.

So, is this a proxy world war? Not yet. But it is a proxy great-power confrontation. America and Israel are using force against Iran. Iran is using geography, missiles, drones and proxies. Russia gains strategically. China hedges diplomatically and economically. The Gulf states try to survive between them all.

The worst outcome is not a single dramatic explosion. It is a war of attrition: Hormuz remains unreliable; the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb are threatened; Gulf energy infrastructure is repeatedly hit; oil and gas prices stay high; inflation returns; central banks delay rate cuts; poorer countries face currency falls, food stress and debt pressure. The IMF says the Hormuz disruption is already the largest oil-market disruption in history, acting like a sudden tax on fuel-importing economies. UNCTAD warns that prolonged disruption would slow trade and growth while hitting vulnerable households and developing countries hardest.

If America refuses to back down, it may discover the central lesson of the Gulf: military superiority does not equal strategic control. Iran does not need to defeat the US Navy. It only needs to make the price of “victory” intolerable.

 

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