Brexit Day – What you really think and will you celebrate it?

By TruePublica: Today is the last day of Britain’s membership of the European Union after 47 years. To be fair, it was inevitable at some point that the government might have to respond to what appeared to be gathering opposition to EU membership – but the reality was that in 2015 it was not high on the order of political issues the electorate had in mind. Brexit has been a manufactured dilemma. It was manufactured by the vested interests of big business and the mainstream media. It was well known before 2016 that an EU referendum would divide civil society, business, Britain’s global diplomatic efforts and its political parties.

After three and a half years, the public is clearly worn down by the chaos Brexit has brought to the nation. However – we finally arrive at a landmark day whether we like it not.

Will the country celebrate? Contrary to many smug Brexiteers and their calls for Big Ben Bongs and Brexit parties to match that of a coronation, nothing much will happen. Just 13 per cent of all adults will be celebrating this day.  An astonishing 80 per cent will ‘probably not’ or ‘definitely not’ celebrate. Given the mandate that Boris Johnson has been given you would think that there would be more enthusiasts out there for Brexit.

I suspect that any remainers seeing the Royal Mint commemorative Brexit 50p coins passing their palms will throw them in the sewer. Even this coin is mired in indecision, waste and controversy. This is third time lucky as a previous batch of 1,000 prototypes struck for the previously planned departure date of March 29 last year had to be melted down. Then, up to a million other 50p coins ready for October 31, 2019 – the next date the country was due to leave – also had to be melted down.

 

 

 

The poll above came after another YouGov result (below).  The tracker below looks at whether Brexit was a good idea in hindsight. This same tracker has been regularly posted since referendum day in 2016 – and it’ll be interesting to see if this changes over time. For the last 18 months, the poll has returned a negative response to the question – do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?

Overall, 47 per cent think it was wrong to vote to leave the EU, with 40 per cent believing it was the right decision. As you can see, this is a Tory decision overwhelmingly backed by Tory voters. One very obvious observation is that the Tory party is the party of Brexit. The point to be made here is that they own Brexit 100 per cent and if this goes wrong, what remains of the Conservative party will be punished like no other. It won’t happen overnight, but if the economy goes into recession, austerity is reinvigorated, the national debt rises and taxes increase to compensate – they will never, ever be forgiven for what will be seen as the most catastrophic political decision the country has made in a hundred years or more.

And how long will it be before the country recognises that Brexit was a good thing or a bad thing? Who knows. Brexit is not a calculated gamble as no country the size of Britain has ever left the worlds largest trading bloc before. It’s just a gamble plain and simple.

The probability is that the country will either stagnate or go into some sort of recession and after its experience of ten years of austerity, the country is well seasoned in taking it on the chin for bankers and politicians. By all accounts, another decade of decay like the last is the most likely outcome. And it won’t actually be about GDP in the end. Britain knows what it is like to be a member of the EU. Watching the EU from next door will be telling over the next 10, 20 and 30 years.

 

 

 

 

Today, we leave the European Union. The first stage of this dreadful political drama has been reached. And yet, without any discussion with its citizens, one man will now decide if we pivot our future towards Trump’s America or that of Europe. Britain can’t have both – it simply isn’t big enough or strong enough to go it alone and it needs a trade deal. It’s one or the other. Choosing the former of those two options would be an even bigger mistake.

 

 

---