Don’t believe MSM on election statistics – here’s what you need to know

TruePublica Editor: I’ve been asked numerous times already to make a prediction for the upcoming election. I won’t – yet. I want our readers to make their own minds up and along the way, we’ll publish relevant information to help you decide. The reason I’ve been asked is that I predicted in 2015 the collapse of the long-established politics of Britain, of emerging anarchy by the rich and powerful and instability it would create – and all of these things have since become reality.

In September 2015:

“Britain gives the impression of a functioning democracy by the mere nature of providing a ludicrously antiquated voting system, which the government promised to reform – but didn’t. In reality, it fights political dissent at every opportunity, using taxpayer funds against activists and protest groups whose only crime is to moderate a rapacious, out-of-control corporatocracy that cares for nothing but profit, which it then offshores to prevent its own tax obligations.

In a few short years, Britain will see state failure through the fall of democracy as a direct result of its political elite. Its implosion will start with David Cameron, who the establishment will fatally believe, will lead for a decade or more. The political implosion will see a succession of leaders fail, like any other state failure. In this fall it will stoke nationalism, isolationism and hatred and then finally become a European outpost of America.”

 

Before ‘fake news’ was made famous in Trump’s America, in another article in October 2015, entitled – Britain Ruled by Political System Built on Dishonesty, Disinformation, and Duplicity – I wrote:

“Britain’s once famed values of fairness, justice and humanitarianism will not fare so well under an authoritarian, unaccountable government such as this. It will rapidly decline and fall prey to another ideology that somehow the country will phoenix itself and become the world power it once was – and unexpectedly collapse on the way.”

 

TruePublica was itself established in July 2015 for this very reason – to help combat political lying and the widespread use of propaganda, especially during elections. Cameron lost a year later, Brexit arrived, then Theresa May lost. The economy is now on a knife-edge, Britain’s standing in the world has almost completely collapsed and out of all of this, Britain has lost control – of everything. Will a fourth PM in four years take a seat in No10? And when they do – the breakup of the union is almost assured.

 

Election 2019

From ‘taking back control’ to rolling the dice. Far from what the Brexiteers promised – here we are breaking the Brexit deadlock after three years of purgatory – or at least attempting to.

The mainstream print and broadcast media are in max frenzy mode as they prepare for the biggest decision since, well, June 2016 when the ironically named Conservative and Unionist party unleashed the catastrophic notion of giving a protest vote to a population ravaged by austerity. Ironically, to save itself, the Tories threw the nation and its union under a (red) bus. Woefully out of touch with the mood of the nation and anything remotely looking like leadership – they lost. Theresa May, also completely out of touch did the same thing. The last four Tory leaders have seen the question of Europe set fire to their careers one way or another. Boris Johnson, whose eduction far exceeds his intellect could well be making the same miscalculation. You’d think they’d learn, wouldn’t you?

Make no mistake – Election2019 is about Brexit and it will be the election that sees some strange new statistics. In addition, this election will see lots of lies, fake news and propaganda banded about. It will be the dirtiest American-like election in British history.

Between April to September, the Electoral Commission has been swamped with complaints leading to investigations of political corruption and skullduggery, where over 80% of cases have led to fines being imposed. The September to end of the year period alone is bound to make the Commission fully employed for some time to come.

Just yesterday – a new tactical voting website was called out for advising pro-remain voters to back the LibDems in some seats where the party is way behind Labour, including key knife-edge marginals against the Conservatives. One senior MP said – “The only person who benefits from this bogus advice is Boris Johnson and the vested interests he protects.” So be careful – it’s going to be dirty so expect it.

The broadcasters are usually all over elections like a rash and I’ve not seen any announcements yet. It will be interesting to see who gets what slots and how it all pans out. Corbyn is just as bad as Johnson at these things so at least that is reasonably even.

Broadly speaking this is the current state of play when it comes to the polls.

Poll of Polls (October 25th) puts the result so far at Conservative 37%,  labour 24%, LibDems 17%,  Brexit Party 11%,  Greens 4%,  SNP 4%, UKIP 1%,  and changeUK 0%. (source)

One thing to remember is that in David Cameron’s 2015 election, the EU referendum in 2016 and subsequent Theresa May snap-election – three-quarters of the pollsters got it wrong. Also, don’t forget that in the EU referendum half a dozen of the most influential pollsters illegally sold data (knowing that Leave had won) to hedge-funds and deliberately said the opposite to the pubic (that Remain had won) to produce the biggest day of profit the industry had ever seen. The hedge-funds made billions. In other words – they are as corrupt as the City of London banksters that feed them – and can’t be trusted.

Personally, I think that this election will produce the largest number of non-Tory and non-Labour MP’s for a century. Two reasons – the first is obviously Brexit. The SNP will torch the opposition in Scotland. For Scotland, this election is about independence. If they clean up as expected – ScotIndyRef2 is on. Second – the LibDems, the only party standing for a second referendum will make gains from quite a few moderate voters who can’t stomach the extremes of the Jihadist Brexiteers or militants loitering on the far left or right of the two big political parties. But vote they will.

Prof John Curtiss agrees. He predicted the 2016 Brexit result and has been in charge of the accurate exit polls in the recent elections in 2015 and 2017. Speaking to LBC presenter Shelagh Fogarty a couple of days ago, he said pretty much the same – that as many as 100 MP’s could be heading for parliament that do not belong to the two big players. He also predicts a clean up in Scotland. (source)

Just over 50 MP’s have stood down and the mainstream media are making a big thing of it. A dozen big names are leaving like Ken Clarke, Rory Stewart, David Lidington, Heidi Allen and now Nicky Morgan. Many are stating that standing for parliament as their civic duty is no longer worth the risk, as death threats and the thorough nastiness of the political fringes, have seen fit to spew out their toxic bile. In truth, some are retiring buy many are also sitting in marginal seats, will probably lose anyway and want to save face – Amber Rudd is one of them (her majority was barely 350 votes).

Forget the media in this –  it should be pointed out that an average of 86 MPs have stood down in each general election between 1979 and 2015. In fact, in 2015, for example, it was 90. So for all the big hitters leaving, there is nothing statistically significant about the number standing down at this election – at least, not yet anyway. (source)

In saying all that – the number of women MP’s (overall) and moderate Tory MP’s standing down is alarming and is itself a first. ITV’s Paul Brand told last night how one female MP received 2,000 abusive messages in a single week. What won’t be said it this – if the Conservative leadership runs what is essentially a people versus parliament election campaign, which they will  – they will exacerbate this thoroughly nasty environment they kicked off in the first place. It could potentially put lives at risk, which will only drive more women away from politics and create problems on the streets, as this toxic culture of hate gives even more air to the trolls and thugs behind the non-stop abuse and mob-style intimidation.

Another great statistic worth remembering is that British voters have been asked on five occasions to help out a government in the middle of its term and on every occasion so far they returned a hung parliament (source).

Since 1918, turnout in UK general elections has averaged 73%. In recent years, the lowest turnout was in 2001 (59%). The top five vote shares were all achieved before 1945, while the five lowest occurred in 2015 and 2017 (source)

Postal votes will be significant this year. The weather in December could be. If it is foggy, icy or snowy – many (especially in the countryside) may not venture out. Overall, it will be to Johnson’s advantage to have bad weather.

All of these statistics add to the idea that many MP’s will not emanate from the Tories or Labour, that marginal seats will probably increase, there will be some big surprises and that a hung parliament is just as statistically likely as any outcome predicted by the media or pollsters.

One thing is for sure – the Daily Mail, Express, Sun, Mirror and Telegraph will be the cheerleaders of the lies and propaganda that infects politics today – they will be full of it as usual.

 

 

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