EU referendum – when and what will happen

On 27th May 2015 the EU Referendum Bill was unveiled in the Queen’s Speech. On 25th June David Cameron set out his stall to other EU members at the European Council Meeting. September 1st – A new group charged with handling issues relating to the EU referendum began its work, headed by British official Jonathan Faull, it reports to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

David Cameron’s EU summit’s in December 2015 failed to get any agreement. The next EU summit on the Brexit referendum is February 18th and March 17th. If Cameron fails to secure the deal he wants then, he’ll have to wait until the next meeting in mid-June. With 16 weeks notice required to give notice of a referendum, it’s unlikely he’ll want to risk this as it’s a bit late.

2017 holds a number of disadvantages for Cameron’s ‘In’ team such as elections in various EU countries, not least the biggest proponents of the union, France and Germany. There’s another small matter of disquiet and political anxiety over the increasing unpopularity of the refugee crisis, likely to get much worse after the winter. As time goes by the people of EU countries are getting seriously frustrated and angry about it.

Already the Schengen agreement is under strain with freedom of movement halted in Austria and Angela Merkel and EU president Jean-Claude Juncker clearly stating the fate of the EU and even the Euro is at stake. Border fences and overflowing refugee camps are being headlined combined with continual political disagreement and is hardly conducive to an argument of unity. Time is not on Cameron’s side. He’s backed himself into a corner. As timing is critical, somewhere between June and July this year seems to be about right.

Sky News has just reported that Investment bank Goldman Sachs has reportedly given a “six-figure” donation to the campaign to keep the UK in the European Union. The US bank is said to have backed “Britain Stronger In Europe”, a cross-party group leading the In campaign.

Of course, the American Democrat government couldn’t do such a thing as donate ‘substantial funds’ so it’s using one of its proxy arms  – Goldman Sachs.

As Huffington Post reports “It was reported on Thursday that the president (Obama) will use a visit to the UK in the Spring to urge the British public to vote to remain inside the EU at the upcoming referendum. However speaking in the Commons today, Conservative MP Philip Hollobone welcomed Obama’s visit, but said: “More disturbingly, it’s also been reported he will be invited by the prime minister to comment on the merits of Britain staying in the EU, as part of an increasingly desperate attempt to shore up the increasingly threadbare proposals for us to stay in the EU.”

Why would Goldman Sachs and President Obama act in this manner?

Just two weeks ago TruePublica reported on the origins of EU with the headline “USA Covert Operations to Assimilate Europe Into A Federal State” in which we stated “It (USA) wanted Europe to be complimentary to American policy, viewing American federalism an ideal political model. It wanted to assimilate Europe (from the 1950s) and implemented various covert operations to undermine staunch resistance to federalist ideas. The opportunity was a puppet run super-state filled with attendant yes men for trade and the manipulation of strategic global markets and, just as importantly a defensive buffer zone against its new foe – the Reds from Russia and China.”

The massive TTIP agreement (an agreement that allows for manipulation of global markets between the USA and EU), thought to be responsible for 40% of global GDP is not likely to get full EU signatory authority during 2016. TTIP has no public support whatsoever with millions signing various petitions and dozens of activist groups emerging in a bid to stave off a corporate coup d’état of sovereign states.

What is more likely is a global shift of social democracy towards more authoritarian right-wing governments’. Globalisation is at fault. Offshoring is at fault. Rising inequality is at fault. And millions in the democratic West feel as though they have been left in the industrial wastelands of their country to rot.

Obama has delivered nothing but profits to Wall Street and death in his ever-expanding war machine to brown people in the Mid-East. ‘Yes We Can’ actually meant, no we can’t and the chances of Obama’s successor in Hilary Clinton losing to a rising right-wing Republican is stronger than many think.

TTIP will likely fail because public sentiment against yet more globalisation is reaching fever pitch.

David Cameron is likely to lose the EU referendum. He will do so for the very same reasons. Globalisation has caused the traditional industrial heartlands of Britain for cheap labour in Asia to crash into dust where whole communities are now places of poverty and ruin. Immigration is perceived to be damaging to jobs, health and education and right-wing factions are gaining the upper hand in the propaganda wars.

When Britain decides to leave the EU, which it most likely will – it will create social division. Typically a political divide and rule architecture will emerge in the form of culture wars. Eventually, this form of right-wing normality will fail, probably quicker than expected but the damage will be incalculable. One outcome is that the Conservative party will likely see several prime ministers fail over which direction to take.  It will likely lead to political chaos as the economy tanks. The likelihood is that these kneejerk changes of direction will provide a legacy of constitutional and economic failure.

All sorts of things could go wrong. Why would Scotland not want to revive its independence argument if England has decided it wants its own independence from the EU? How would Northern Ireland not have a border with Ireland with one being a non-EU member and other being so – and would that not stir up old troubles? What will happen to all those global companies that manufacture things in Britain to gain access to EU markets? What will the financial markets do if Britain breaks ties with financial markets in Europe? These questions are not being asked and they should be.

There’s a trajectory in motion and Cameron has misjudged it by giving a protest vote to the disaffected and the disadvantaged who now represent at least 50 per cent of the country.

By Graham Vanbergen TruePublica

 

 

 

 

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