Brexit Officially Confirmed Dead
By Graham Vanbergen: The Queen’s Speech is the centrepiece of the State Opening of Parliament and is really the equivalent of the government’s “mission statement” for the year ahead. Last June was confirmation that the “will of the people”, expressed in last year’s referendum, is sovereign. And that’s the point. Park that supposed fact.
Democracy in Britain is a system of government in which power is vested in the people, through freely elected representatives and is sometimes referred to as “rule of the majority”. Whilst there are a number of political principles applied to democracy, the one we are interested in for this article is that democracy is also the active participation of the people, as citizens, in politics and civic life. That is supposed to be a fact as well.
We either have democracy or some other description that does not include the word ‘representative’. Neither the monarch or the Prime Minister has absolute control. So, in theory, we have a democracy. The Prime Minister hands the Queen her speech each year and then it becomes sovereign.
Theresa May’s Brexit has just proved beyond any doubt that we have no such thing as democracy in Britain. Be it Labour or Conservative, at best, Britain is a guided democracy – guided by vested interests.
Theresa May’s Florence speech regarding Brexit was nothing more than the equivalent of a manifesto pledge – the type of deception we associate politicians with today. It’s strange isn’t it – If 80 percent of people don’t believe what politicians say – why would 80 percent buy into their vision of the future – because their vision of the future is always different to the one they were elected for in the first place. And when was the last time an elected party actually did what they were elected to do anyway? Why would you think that Brexit mean Brexit?
The final result of the EU referendum produced 17.4 million Leave voters verses 16.1 million Remainers or 51.89 / 48.1 percent. There were over 33 million votes cast on this single issue and the result was clear. You can argue if the result really meant a Brexit or not, but nevertheless, democracy says the Leave campaign won.
Since the EU referendum, the mood has shifted though. (YouGov -“Forget 52%. The rise of the “Re-Leavers” mean the pro-Brexit electorate is 68%“). That shift has seen 45 percent restating that they would still want a hard Brexit and only 22 percent restating they are hard Remainers. But then add in the third group of this poll and something else emerges; that 23 percent, who were indeed Remainers believe that the government needs to carry out the wishes of the people and leave the EU. It should now be even clearer to the government, that in the PM’s own words, “Brexit means Brexit.”
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Britain’s Brexit situation is indeed far more simple than the politicians would have everyone believe. Either Britain, as a nation has the confidence to leave the EU and become a global trader or it doesn’t. Everything else is a matter of detail. These YouGov results don’t just suggest that to be the case – it is a clear matter of fact. The people of Britain do have that confidence (mistaken or otherwise).
The Greeks faced a similar question. Having democratically elected a new leader to challenge the EU, they did not have the confidence to stick with their decision. Driven by Germany and France, the looting of Greece proceeded. Greece is now a shell. Its assets have been sold off or are on the auction list. Democracy did not hold up in Greece. The EU is not a democratic institution in the way we understand, this much we do understand.
In the meantime, it shouldn’t be forgotten that from 2008 to 2015, the United Kingdom’s contribution to the EU rose each year, to the point that it ultimately became the third biggest net payer into the EU’s budget. The only countries that paid more for European unity were Germany and France.
But in 2015, according to a study by the Center for European Policy (CEP), Britain was paying 12.7 billion euros more than they got back from the EU. That is 32 million euros a day, 365 days a year.
By comparison, Germany paid 15.6 billion euros. The paper also determined that the British paid more into the EU per capita than Germany did that year.
“After this country’s withdrawal from the EU, this net amount will have to be redistributed among the other member states,” writes CEP report author Matthias Kullas. “The other major net payers, especially Germany, France and Italy, will be facing significant additional costs.”
And another thing in this report should be noted. Brexit could also lead to painful shortfalls for the European Investment Bank (EIB). If Britain were to withdraw their share capital in the development bank, it would result in a shortfall worth tens of billions. The EIB would be forced to make fewer loans; loans that are vital for infrastructure projects across the European Union.
According to the report, the British have thus far borne the greatest burden at the bank. Their share of total capital is 16 percent, but they only benefit from 8.8 percent of the loans. No other country has a larger imbalance. Why this is so can only be speculated.
In short, for the EU, Britain, the 6th largest economy in the world is the second largest net contributor to the EU and the largest to its infrastructure bank. For Germany, this is bad news, but it gets worse. Following Brexit, Germany’s share of the overall economic strength of the EU would rise from around 21 percent to 25 percent. The consequence, the report goes on to say is an “increase of the German share of financing of the EU budget by about 4.5 billion euros a year (12 million euros a day) in 2019 and 2020.”
Der Spiegal writes quoting the same report that “If the British continue to delay their departure from the EU, a complicated situation will arise. The member states will be forced to negotiate the bloc’s finances at the same time they begin Brexit negotiations. But how will Brussels be able to determine its budget without knowing how much the British government will be paying into it?”
In the meantime, figures from the ONS showed that Europe is gradually becoming a less important destination for UK companies. In 2000, 60% of exports went to other EU countries, but the percentage fell to 58% in 2005, 54% in 2010 and 47% in 2015 and now on track to reach 42% by 2020.
In addition, Europe has tended to be a less crucial market for UK service sector companies, many of whom have close business links with the US. Since 2000, the percentage of services sector exports going to the EU has remained at around 40%. Taking goods and services together, the share of exports going to the EU has fallen from 54% in 2000 to 44% in 2015 and is due to fall to 40% by 2020. Make no mistake though, Britain’s trade surplus with the EU is a huge loss to the EU.
The EU does not want to see the UK leave.
With all these figures to the plus side, what we are seeing here is that Theresa May is not in control of a functioning government and most certainly not when it comes to Brexit. As a consequence, the citizens of Britain, far from taking back control have lost the mechanisms to decide the destiny of the country through democratic principles. Theresa May’s Florence speech is evidence of that. Brexit is not going to be delivered – democracy will be denied.
(Another clue is the advancing integration of UK military forces into the EU structure – read this excellent article from UK Column News – “EU To Take Control Of British Nuclear Deterrent“).
The unaccountable nature of the European Union’s institutions, namely the ECB, the Commission and Eurogroup allied with NATO, the US/UK military industrial complex, the global banking behemoths – centralised in New York, London, Paris and Berlin will not allow the people of Britain to decide on such matters. The thought that somehow these illiberal globalists, who sold us and the rest of the world out to its neoliberal globalisation plan, that has caused all this mayhem in the first place was ever going to let go of their golden fleece is quite absurd, fantastical even.
Democracy itself contrasts with other forms of government where power is either held by an individual or where power is held by a small number of individuals, as in an plutocracy. That plutocracy has just risen up in Britain and shown its ugly head.
Theresa May’s Florence speech shows that these forces are now working in concert to stop Brexit. This U-Turn will be Britain’s biggest ever. May has now put Brexit on ice for two years, dangled tens of billions of pounds in front of the EU for no reason and abandoned her promises to the people and democracy. It’s clear May has no plan, otherwise we would all know what it was. This much is evident – and in plain sight. And I’m not the only one. Even the mainstrem media, representing all their vested interests are either wailing or gloating, but one thing they do agree on though – Brexit is not going to happen. Brexit is now officially dead.
In 2017, moderates won their elections in Austria, Holland, France and Germany – but in truth, the far-right did terrifyingly well simply because these forces continue to outbid democratic principles. The result is that people are getting increasingly angry, increasingly belligerent and increasingly more violent.
With Churchillian wisdom, one does not have to look back too far into history to see the future. This is where civil disobedience emanates from. These are dangerous times and this ever more noticeable plutocratic regime are making it so.
The Independent: Brexit: UK may not actually exit the EU, warn political sources
The Mirror: Brexit’s never going to happen – and here’s why
Business Insider: City analysts say Britain will never fully leave the EU
Euractiv: Why Brexit will not happen
ThatsDemocracy: Why Brexit will not happen
GulfToday: Cable believes that Brexit will not happen
YahooFinance: Leading economist says Brexit will never happen