Brexit – The tick-tock of the demographic time bomb
TruePublica Editor: Last Saturday, Sky News reported that Britain has reached the tipping point where the nation moves from being pro to anti-Brexit.
“Number crunchers have calculated that based on demographic trends alone, with no one changing their mind, enough Leave voters will have died and enough Remain supporters will have reached voting age to wipe out the majority of around 1.3 million recorded back in June 2016.”
I warned in the book Brexit – A Corporate Coup D’Etat that this was an inevitability that would simply never, ever go away. Collated months ago as part of the research for the book, I wrote:
“In the years ahead, a really big dilemma with Brexit will be one of age. Taking these statistics and applying current UK mortality rates, the number of Leave voters who die each year and those entering the electoral system aged 18-25 (Remain) means that by August 2019 or 3.2 years since the referendum, the number of people voting in a similar referendum would have reached parity or 50/50.
Even if that statement were somehow inaccurate by a margin, it would only be a matter of months after that, that the same statement becomes true. By late 2022, or thereabouts, the number of Remain voters, assuming no change of sentiment towards Brexit, will outnumber Leave voters by the same margin of 1.2 million.”
As you can see I was being cautious, taking into account other anomalies such as the numbers of voters coming of age who simply don’t register to vote, but nevertheless, my prediction was right in every sense.
Sky News also reported that the result of this statistic had generated a view amongst Leavers that it was ageist and discriminatory to report it when it is simply a fact of life. That fact is based on this. Of the over 65s, 89 per cent of them voted in the EU referendum and 64 per cent of them voted to leave. In contrast, of the under 25s, 71 per cent of those that voted went for remain. The time lag from my statistics comes from the lower numbers that registered to vote in the under 25s demographic.
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“However, the conclusion of the YouGov survey has stoked controversy, with accusations of ageism and critics pointing out it was carried out on behalf of those campaigning for a second referendum.”
Polly Toynbee from The Guardian might be a rampant leftie to many but what she wrote in response may have a degree of artistic licence for her audience but the statistics are still undeniable: “The true ‘will of the people’ looks considerably more questionable if it turns out to be the will of dead people – not the will of those who have the most life ahead of them to face the consequences.”
Again, the reality, based on the demographics provided by YouGov, the EU referendum results of 2016 and current UK mortality rates, the Leave majority has been falling away at a rate of 1,350 per day. I would have put it at something like 1,100 a day.
However, allowing for their considerable collation of statistics and using the YouGov numbers, by June 2021 the same result (i.e. 52/48) but in reverse will have taken place in favour of Remain. If you really want to push out further, the same statistics would move another 4 per cent in favour of Remain by January 2024. And in truth, that is not that far away either. In just five years time a very clear and significant majority, something like 56/44 would vote to remain in the European Union based on nothing other than the hard statistics of the last referendum. That assumes that Brexit, whatever happens, did no damage at all to the economy by 2024.
As for the economy, read our exclusive report on what was actually said about the economy as a result of Brexit – not what was reported by the mainstream media – it is pretty shocking.
In the book, I also quoted from The National Centre for Social Research who made comment about the future. They collated statistics about attitudes towards immigration. It’s head of public attitudes – Roger Harding said: “On the topic of immigration itself – we found a big divide between young graduates who were positive about the social impact on immigration and older school leavers who were much more negative. The view in Britain on aggregate is pretty middling, but underneath is that stark divide – and this division could be a problem for all political parties trying to win over the country post-Brexit.”
You can see exactly what is being said by Harding. Younger and older people have differing views on the very subject that was placed at the heart of Brexit. His basic statement about Brexit that ended with the prophetic words that it will be a ‘problem for all political parties trying to win over the country post-Brexit’ will haunt politics and public life in Britain for decades to come.