May Elections: A Warning From a Country That Has Lost Its Economic Story

By Graham Vanbergen: Britain goes into the May elections in a state of political volatility that now feels normal but should not. The coming contests on 7 May 2026 include local government elections, Scottish Parliament elections, Senedd Cymru elections and mayoral elections in England.

The polling picture suggests a country splintering away from the old two-party settlement. YouGov’s latest Westminster voting intention has Reform UK on 26 per cent, Conservatives 19 per cent, Labour 18, Greens 15 and Liberal Democrats 13 per cent. In London, LSE’s Tony Travers has described the political landscape as one of “unprecedented change”, with Greens and Reform rising as Labour and Conservatives slip.

This is not just an election story. It is a warning signal.

Britain has become a country where anger is easier to sell than repair. Reform UK offers a politics of grievance, borders and cultural rupture. The Greens, although very different in outlook, increasingly benefit from disillusionment with the old economic consensus and from younger voters who believe mainstream politics has failed on climate, housing and fairness. These are not identical movements, but they are symptoms of the same national breakdown: millions no longer believe the centre can deliver.

The roots of this failure go back to 2008.

The financial crisis did not simply crash banks. It broke the promise that each generation would do better than the last. After 2008, Britain entered a long period of weak productivity, low investment, squeezed wages and deteriorating public services. The Resolution Foundation has noted that, in the 12 years after the financial crisis, UK productivity grew at roughly half the rate of the 25 richest OECD countries.

Then came Brexit. It was sold as a democratic release valve, but it was also an economic protest by people who felt ignored. The Office for Budget Responsibility continues to assess Brexit as a drag on UK trade and productivity, with lasting consequences for the public finances. Britain has therefore endured two great ruptures in succession: the financial crash, then Brexit. It has not recovered from either.

The result is a politics of blame. One side blames migrants. Another blames capitalism. Another blames Brussels, Westminster, woke culture, net zero, bankers, landlords, benefit claimants, or “the blob”. But blame is not a strategy; it is a business model.

That business model is amplified by a toxic media environment. The Reuters Institute’s 2025 Digital News Report found traditional news media struggling with declining engagement and low trust. Ofcom’s 2025 research showed how news consumption has shifted heavily online, with social media now central to how people encounter politics. NatCen has warned that platforms such as X, Facebook, TikTok and WhatsApp are reshaping political engagement, trust and polarisation.

This matters because outrage travels faster than explanation. Take for instance, the Daily Mail-style politics of permanent provocation, combined with X’s algorithmic reward system, which has helped create a public square where insult routinely defeats evidence. Parliament itself has suffered: a 2025 parliamentary briefing noted that the share of people with low or no trust in MPs rose from 54% in 2014 to 76% in 2024.

So what replaces this?

Britain needs a new political and economic model: not left versus right theatre, but a national renewal economy built around security, investment and shared prosperity.

That means five things.

First, Britain needs long-term industrial strategy, not short-term gimmicks. The Resolution Foundation argues that industrial strategy should focus on boosting private investment and productivity, and estimates that if UK investment had matched France, Germany and the US since 2008, GDP would be nearly 4% higher today, enough to raise average wages by around £1,250 a year.

Second, growth must be felt in ordinary households. IPPR’s Commission on Economic Justice argued that prosperity and justice must be hard-wired into the economy, not corrected afterwards by redistribution alone. That means better wages, housing supply, skills, transport, health and regional investment.

Third, Britain should adopt a mission-led state. Mariana Mazzucato’s “mission economy” model argues that government should set clear national goals and mobilise public and private investment around them — not by controlling everything, but by shaping markets around public purpose. For Britain, the missions are obvious: housing, energy security, child poverty, NHS resilience, skills, productivity and climate adaptation.

Fourth, well-being should become an economic objective, not a sentimental afterthought. The well-being economy approach argues that the economy should serve people and planet, rather than treating GDP as the sole measure of success. This is not anti-growth. It is better growth: growth that reduces insecurity instead of multiplying it.

Fifth, democracy itself needs repair. Britain needs a political culture that rewards seriousness: citizens’ assemblies on long-term issues, stronger local government, cleaner political funding, proper social media accountability, and public-interest journalism that explains rather than inflames.

The May elections will be read as a verdict on the government, the opposition and the insurgent parties. But they are really a verdict on a failed era. Since 2008, Britain has asked people to accept stagnant living standards, weaker services, unaffordable homes, insecure work and permanent political combat — then acted surprised when voters turned away from the centre.

Reform UK and the Greens are not the cause of Britain’s fragmentation. They are evidence of it.

The country does not need more attack-dog politics. It needs a new settlement: economically serious, socially decent, locally rooted and future-facing. The task is not to defeat anger by shouting louder. It is to make anger less necessary.

That is the positive change Britain now needs.

 

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